Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation
155K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.6%.
Measured over 155K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 155K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 155K
- Best context
- 57.7% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 46.8% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.2% at 0-999, 54.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (287 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (419 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (102 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (761 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,390 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (437 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,304 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (3,238 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,052 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,525 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (6,328 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,999 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (70 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (6,866 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (11,859 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (3,314 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (161 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (10,485 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (23,510 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (4,055 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (162 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (10,607 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (27,897 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (4,157 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (74 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (11,575 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (14,982 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (2,008 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (19 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (1,965 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (842 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation scores 53.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.1% and 53.6% — from 155K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 155K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 155K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 57.1% (29K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.3% in Blitz (90K games) against 51.9% in Rapid (17K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 808 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 52.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 54.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 46K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 90K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 39.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 513 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.3% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.