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Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation

2.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.6%Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 48.6%Based on 2.2M games
0%48.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 48.6%
Outcome Distribution
46.3%4.5%49.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Nd7
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation
Analyzen=2.2M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 48.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.5% and 48.6%), based on 2.2M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.0% win rate (50,017 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.3% win rate (120,701 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.4% win rate (227,404 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.1% win rate (355,532 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.2% win rate (464,626 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.0% win rate (478,727 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.5% win rate (332,355 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.0% win rate (165,824 games)
  • 2500+: 39.7% win rate (25,461 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Blitz (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.0% win rate (1,769 games)
  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (683,004 games)
  • Blitz: 46.1% win rate (1,098,589 games)
  • Rapid: 46.3% win rate (418,107 games)
  • Classical: 46.4% win rate (19,178 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (12,483 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (26,079 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (11,372 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (60 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (52 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (30,812 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (58,378 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (31,009 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (450 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (144 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (60,485 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (107,730 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (57,410 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (1,635 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (262 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (91,685 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (175,760 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (83,480 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (4,345 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (500 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (121,651 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (244,221 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (92,223 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (6,031 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (315 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (127,912 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (258,237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (87,278 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (4,985 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (369 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (122,461 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (163,482 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (44,642 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (1,401 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (94 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (95,371 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (59,899 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (10,270 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (20,144 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (4,803 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.1% expected score (423 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (81 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Continuations (6)
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line
53.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation
48.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack
54.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System
47.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation
53.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation
52.8%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.7% win rate for white (25K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.7%) by 2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 121K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 227K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 356K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 465K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 479K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 332K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 166K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 45.7%-49.7%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white (683K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.1%) win rate for white (1.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.6%) win rate for white (418K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.2%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.