Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack
61K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
56.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.0%.
Measured over 61K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 61K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 61K
- Best context
- 61.5% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 54.9% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.3% at 0-999, 59.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (35 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (37 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.1% expected score (138 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (91 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (34 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (491 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (341 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (94 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (1,167 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (1,264 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (230 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (3,364 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (5,164 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (649 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (5,536 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (10,255 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (1,677 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (76 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (6,450 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (10,865 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (1,833 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (60 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (6,243 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (3,847 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (315 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (840 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (92 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack scores 56.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.4% and 57.0% — from 61K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 61K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack, White wins 54.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 61K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 60.3% (941 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 55.9% in Blitz (32K games) against 56.6% in Rapid (4.9K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 264 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 57.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 932 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 57.8%, draws 1.8% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 55.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 54.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 54.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 57.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 37.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.3%. It rests on 941 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 56.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 54.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 49.6%, draws 6.7% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 169 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.7% of its games and loses 41.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.