Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense
6.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
42.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.1%.
Measured over 6.0K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.0K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 6.0K
- Best context
- 44.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 39.9% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 63.8% at 0-999, 39.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (70 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 29.5% expected score (18 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (85 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 30.8% expected score (82 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (154 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (159 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (366 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (389 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (71 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (465 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (771 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (92 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (1,348 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (1,026 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (86 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.9% expected score (574 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (70 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense scores 42.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.0% and 43.1% — from 6.0K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 6.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense, Black wins 40.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 6.0K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 43.2% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 42.0% in Blitz (2.5K games) against 43.9% in Rapid (294 games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 34.8%, draws 0.3% and loses 64.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.0%. It rests on 178 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 39.1%, draws 1.3% and loses 59.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.8%. It rests on 350 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 846 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 39.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 58.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.6%. It rests on 644 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 40.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 39.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.1%, draws 5.6% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 294 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 40.3% of its games and loses 56.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.