6.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 42.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.0% and 43.1%), based on 6.0K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 58% → 38%
Best in Rapid (41%), worst in Classical (27%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 56.1% (90% CI: 55.1%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 64.9% win rate for white (178 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (56.5%) outperforms Rapid (53.3%) by 3.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 64.9% (90% CI: 59.0%-70.7%) win rate for white, based on 178 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 0.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 59.6% (90% CI: 55.3%-63.9%) win rate for white, based on 350 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 51.4%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 846 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 56.1% (90% CI: 53.8%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.1%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 58.8% (90% CI: 55.6%-62.0%) win rate for white, based on 644 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.1%-58.0%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 55.7% (90% CI: 54.0%-57.3%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-58.1%) win rate for white (294 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense is statistically favors white with a 56.1% (90% CI: 55.1%-57.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.