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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack

641K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.1%

45%60%
Floor53.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.2%.

Measured over 641K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 641K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
641K
Best context
56.0% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
46.6% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.3% at 0-999, 53.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,239 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (5,347 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (4,659 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (12,906 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (5,934 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (8,547 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (19,845 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (10,579 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (298 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (57 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (18,643 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (31,298 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (12,189 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (731 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (32,071 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (61,485 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (15,679 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (811 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (39,167 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (105,899 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (21,519 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (921 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (47,432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (94,873 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (16,711 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (546 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (31,604 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (27,977 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (3,756 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (63 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (4,174 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (1,683 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack scores 53.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.0% and 53.2% — from 641K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
641K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 641K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 54.3% (110K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (361K games) against 52.3% in Rapid (88K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 51.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 52.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 110K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 168K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 160K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.9%, draws 5.8% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 52.4%, draws 0.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 175 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 189K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 361K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 88K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.3% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.