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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack

856K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.8%

45%55%
Floor49.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.9%.

Measured over 856K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 856K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
856K
Best context
55.6% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
45.7% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 47.3%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (7,407 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (13,850 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,501 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (18,098 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (44,983 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (15,168 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (27,843 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (81,312 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (35,089 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (746 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (113 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (33,400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (98,091 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (49,163 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (1,948 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (92 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (35,096 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (84,099 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (41,757 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (2,300 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (60 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (31,548 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (57,331 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (20,431 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (27,105 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (45,544 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (7,115 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (204 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (31,409 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (28,014 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,373 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (7,032 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (2,679 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (90 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Continuations (1)
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense
47.1%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 49.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 49.9% — from 856K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
856K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 49.8% (range, 90% confident: 49.7% – 49.9%) for White, based on 856K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack performs best at 2200-2499, where it scores 54.7% for White (62K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, Bullet (50.6%) outperforms Classical (47.5%). Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 48.7% (range, 90% confident: 48.2% – 49.2%) for White, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 49.6% (range, 90% confident: 49.3% – 49.9%) for White, based on 78K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 49.3% (range, 90% confident: 49.1% – 49.5%) for White, based on 145K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 48.6% (range, 90% confident: 48.5% – 48.8%) for White, based on 183K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 48.4% (range, 90% confident: 48.2% – 48.6%) for White, based on 163K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 49.8% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 50.0%) for White, based on 110K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 52.5% (range, 90% confident: 52.2% – 52.8%) for White, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 54.7% (range, 90% confident: 54.4% – 55.1%) for White, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 55.1% (range, 90% confident: 54.3% – 56.0%) for White, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 51.5% (range, 90% confident: 47.4% – 55.7%) for White (388 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 50.6% (range, 90% confident: 50.4% – 50.8%) for White (219K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 49.7% (range, 90% confident: 49.6% – 49.9%) for White (456K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 49.2% (range, 90% confident: 49.0% – 49.4%) for White (175K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 47.5% (range, 90% confident: 46.5% – 48.6%) for White (6.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack is about level with a 48.0% (range, 90% confident: 47.9% – 48.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.