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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack

856K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.8%

45%55%
Floor49.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.9%.

Measured over 856K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 856K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
856K
Best context
55.6% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
45.7% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 47.3%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (7,407 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (13,850 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,501 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (18,098 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (44,983 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (15,168 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (27,843 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (81,312 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (35,089 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (746 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (113 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (33,400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (98,091 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (49,163 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (1,948 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (92 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (35,096 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (84,099 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (41,757 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (2,300 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (60 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (31,548 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (57,331 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (20,431 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (27,105 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (45,544 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (7,115 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (204 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (31,409 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (28,014 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,373 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (7,032 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (2,679 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (90 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Continuations (1)
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense
47.1%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores 49.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 49.9% — from 856K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
856K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, White wins 48.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 856K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.7% (62K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.7% in Blitz (456K games) against 49.2% in Rapid (175K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 145K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 183K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 46.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 163K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 110K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 388 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 219K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 456K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 175K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 45.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.0% of its games and loses 48.4%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.