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Analyzer

Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation

4.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.8%Range (90% confident): 43.6% – 46.1%Based on 4.3K games
0%44.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.6% – 46.1%
Outcome Distribution
43.1%3.5%53.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qb6
Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation
Analyzen=4.3K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 44.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.6% and 46.1%), based on 4.3K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 61% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.8% win rate (47 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.7% win rate (186 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.7% win rate (477 games)
  • 1400-1599: 38.7% win rate (897 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.9% win rate (1,113 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.9% win rate (904 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.6% win rate (377 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.6% win rate (292 games)
  • 2500+: 40.8% win rate (34 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 43.5% win rate (662 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (2,511 games)
  • Rapid: 40.8% win rate (1,099 games)
  • Classical: 38.7% win rate (54 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.6% expected score (56 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (98 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (96 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (296 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 39.1% expected score (127 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (537 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (227 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (132 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (643 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (325 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (463 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (314 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (227 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (99 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (74 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (202 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 58.9% win rate for white (897 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (54.5%) outperforms Classical (60.4%) by -5.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 43.3%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 186 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 477 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 58.9% (90% CI: 56.2%-61.6%) win rate for white, based on 897 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 904 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 377 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 41.4% (90% CI: 36.7%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 292 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-56.5%) win rate for white (662 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-54.6%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-56.9%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.