Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation
4.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.1%.
Measured over 4.3K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.3K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 4.3K
- Best context
- 43.7% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Worst context
- 40.5% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.5%
- Draws
- 3.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 46.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.5% expected score (31 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.6% expected score (56 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (98 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (96 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (296 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (82 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 39.1% expected score (127 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (537 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (227 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (132 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (643 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (325 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (98 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (463 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (314 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (29 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (48 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (227 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (99 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (74 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (202 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation scores 44.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.6% and 46.1% — from 4.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 4.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation, Black wins 43.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 4.3K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.6% (292 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.6% in Blitz (2.5K games) against 43.2% in Rapid (1.1K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 186 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 477 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 38.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 58.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.9%. It rests on 897 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 904 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 377 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 52.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 292 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 662 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.1% of its games and loses 53.5%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.