Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line
1.6M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.8%.
Measured over 1.6M games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.6M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.6M
- Best context
- 59.2% at 2200-2499 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 48.6% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 60.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (35 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (7,097 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (16,088 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (8,786 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (60 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (91 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (15,614 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (22,037 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (14,153 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (299 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (350 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (30,237 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (34,821 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (18,378 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (669 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (909 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (52,111 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (65,196 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (24,501 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (1,373 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (1,671 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (84,606 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (128,610 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (31,466 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (1,726 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (1,410 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (125,181 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (203,354 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (44,836 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (2,121 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (1,152 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (163,582 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (190,158 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (35,267 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (676 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (502 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (163,597 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (68,049 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (8,060 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (70 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.4% expected score (82 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (39,734 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (3,407 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (127 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line scores 52.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.6% and 52.8% — from 1.6M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.6M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 1.6M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.6% (43K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (732K games) against 53.0% in Rapid (186K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 84K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 52.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 144K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 248K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 377K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 391K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 240K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 52.7%, draws 1.9% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 682K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 732K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 186K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 47.3%, draws 6.3% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.6% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.