Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack
210K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.7%.
Measured over 210K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 210K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 210K
- Best context
- 59.4% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.2% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.6% at 0-999, 58.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (24 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (4,286 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (5,700 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (2,784 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.4% expected score (20 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.8% expected score (79 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (5,422 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (7,807 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (3,570 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (69 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (153 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (6,091 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (8,310 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (4,237 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (132 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.6% expected score (155 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (6,426 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (10,955 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (4,390 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (185 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (99 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (6,841 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (12,777 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (4,660 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (230 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.4% expected score (62 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (11,444 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (16,384 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (3,699 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (211 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (31 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (11,374 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (17,923 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (2,709 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 67.2% expected score (112 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (19,363 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (19,744 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (1,524 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.5% expected score (95 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (7,575 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (2,307 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (69 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack scores 52.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 52.7% — from 210K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 210K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack, White wins 50.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 210K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.3% (10.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.4% in Blitz (102K games) against 52.3% in Rapid (28K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 44.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.5%, draws 6.3% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.6%, draws 7.5% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 10.0K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 35.9%, draws 1.4% and loses 62.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.6%. It rests on 626 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 79K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 102K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 48.2%, draws 7.8% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.3% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.