Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit
319K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.1%.
Measured over 319K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 319K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 319K
- Best context
- 53.5% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 46.2% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.1%
- Draws
- 2.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.5% at 0-999, 51.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (7,110 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (6,170 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (2,174 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (178 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (14,096 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (12,375 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (4,398 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (46 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (374 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (22,864 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (18,474 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (6,929 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (125 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (492 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (29,892 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (23,138 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (7,381 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (305 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (261 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (30,647 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (27,192 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (6,093 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.5% expected score (183 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (99 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (26,796 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (22,747 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (4,132 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (109 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (17,852 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (9,609 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,277 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.6% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (11,897 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,558 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (157 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (1,651 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (83 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit scores 50.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.8% and 50.1% — from 319K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 319K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit, White wins 48.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 319K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.3% (1.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.1% in Blitz (121K games) against 48.2% in Rapid (33K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 47.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 64K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 50.2%, draws 1.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 163K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 121K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 46.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 42.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 802 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.5% of its games and loses 48.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.