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Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation

655K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.9%

45%55%
Floor51.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.0%.

Measured over 655K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 655K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
655K
Best context
57.8% at 1400-1599 Classical
Worst context
42.6% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.5% at 0-999, 43.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (9,032 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (17,378 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (9,497 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 66.2% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (70 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (15,425 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (29,117 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (16,404 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (237 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 65.1% expected score (165 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (23,152 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (39,068 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (20,649 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (552 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (281 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (28,803 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (47,287 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (21,450 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (977 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (518 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (33,169 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (53,190 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (18,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (901 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (655 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (36,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (58,160 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (17,360 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (816 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (552 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (33,714 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (47,568 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (11,834 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (425 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (189 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (30,945 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (19,528 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (3,157 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (6,425 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (1,528 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (157 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Continuations (2)
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line
46.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line
46.7%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation scores 51.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.8% and 52.0% — from 655K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
655K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 655K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (36K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (313K games) against 51.3% in Rapid (119K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 84K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 99K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 106K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 113K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 94K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.6%, draws 9.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 217K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 313K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 119K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 49.4%, draws 6.2% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.8% of its games and loses 46.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.