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Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense

768 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score53.5%Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 56.4%Based on 768 games
0%53.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 56.4%
Outcome Distribution
50.2%6.4%43.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Na5
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense
Analyzen=768
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.4%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 53.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 56.4%), based on 768 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 43%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1200-1399: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.2% win rate (7 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.3% win rate (19 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.6% win rate (66 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.4% win rate (215 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.2% win rate (355 games)
  • 2500+: 42.6% win rate (103 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in Rapid (44%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (206 games)
  • Blitz: 50.3% win rate (487 games)
  • Rapid: 44.2% win rate (72 games)
  • Classical: 55.6% win rate (3 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399————
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (43 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (47 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (142 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (85 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (238 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (47 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 43.3% (90% CI: 40.4%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 768 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 47.4% win rate for white (103 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (43.7%) outperforms Rapid (44.2%) by -0.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 40.9% (90% CI: 35.4%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 215 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 42.2% (90% CI: 37.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 355 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 47.4% (90% CI: 39.4%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 103 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 42.2% (90% CI: 36.6%-47.8%) win rate for white (206 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 43.7% (90% CI: 40.0%-47.4%) win rate for white (487 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense is slightly favors black with a 43.3% (90% CI: 40.4%-46.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.