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French Defense

176 variations · 131M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

49.6%

45%55%
Floor49.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 131M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 131M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#11 of 62
Games in this context
131M
Best context
61.0% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
40.7% at 2200-2499 Classical
Variations measured
176
Average game length
34 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn VariationBest here
1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.e5 c5 5.a3 Bxc3+ 6.bxc3 Ne7 7.Qg4 Qc7
Floor 52.9% · 60K games
53.2%
#2French Defense
1.e4 e6
Floor 52.6% · 9.8M games
52.6%
#3French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line
1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.e5 c5 5.a3 Ba5 6.b4 cxd4
Floor 52.4% · 14K games
53.1%
#4French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation
1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.e5 c5 5.a3 Bxc3+ 6.bxc3 Ne7 7.Qg4 Kf8
Floor 52.3% · 2.7K games
53.9%
#5French Defense: Classical Variation, Normal Variation
1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.Bg5 Be7
Floor 51.8% · 113K games
52.0%
#6French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation
1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.e5 c5 5.a3 Bxc3+ 6.bxc3 Ne7 7.Qg4 O-O
Floor 51.8% · 6.7K games
52.8%
#7French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.e5 c5 4.c3 Nc6 5.Nf3 Bd7
Floor 51.7% · 1.1M games
51.8%
#8French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Haberditz Variation
1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nd2 f5
Floor 51.5% · 37K games
51.9%
#9French Defense: St. George Defense, St. George Gambit
1.e4 e6 2.d4 a6 3.c4 b5 4.cxb5 axb5
Floor 51.4% · 8.2K games
52.3%
#10French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation
1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.e5 Qd7
Floor 51.4% · 25K games
51.9%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.5% at 0-999, 42.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.0% expected score (18,465 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,346,880 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (2,693,824 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,201,521 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (10,791 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (56,323 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (2,796,816 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (4,722,186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,744,545 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (40,150 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (139,488 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (4,924,319 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (7,808,868 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (2,614,030 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (93,704 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (224,335 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (7,283,837 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (11,255,115 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (3,539,411 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (179,824 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (210,334 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (9,047,494 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (13,522,679 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (3,830,110 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (186,439 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (131,786 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (9,698,040 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (12,831,490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (3,053,514 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (120,763 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (47,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (7,756,289 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (7,236,193 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,282,821 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (32,812 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.5% expected score (16,304 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (5,154,935 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (2,738,915 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (290,654 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (5,159 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 41.2% expected score (1,693 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (1,228,647 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (263,161 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (13,620 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (1,204 games)

176 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
French Defense: Morphy Gambit2.1K games
58.0%Floor 56.3%
2
French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation402K games
54.6%Floor 54.5%
3
French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation30K games
54.8%Floor 54.3%
French Defense: Banzai-Leong Gambit13K games
54.6%Floor 53.8%
French Defense: Bird Invitation198K games
53.6%Floor 53.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System3.4M games
53.3%Floor 53.3%
French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation7.6K games
54.3%Floor 53.3%
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation60K games
53.2%Floor 52.9%
French Defense9.8M games
52.6%Floor 52.6%
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line14K games
53.1%Floor 52.4%
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation2.7K games
53.9%Floor 52.3%
French Defense: Classical Variation, Normal Variation113K games
52.0%Floor 51.8%
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation6.7K games
52.8%Floor 51.8%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation1.1M games
51.8%Floor 51.7%
French Defense: Perseus Gambit617K games
51.6%Floor 51.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack3.3M games
51.5%Floor 51.5%
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Haberditz Variation37K games
51.9%Floor 51.5%
French Defense: St. George Defense, St. George Gambit8.2K games
52.3%Floor 51.4%
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation25K games
51.9%Floor 51.4%
French Defense: La Bourdonnais Variation, Reuter Gambit166K games
51.4%Floor 51.2%
French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation9.7K games
52.0%Floor 51.2%
French Defense: Carlson Gambit216K games
51.3%Floor 51.1%
French Defense: Classical Variation264K games
51.1%Floor 51.0%
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line33K games
51.4%Floor 51.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit10K games
51.7%Floor 50.9%
French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation541K games
50.9%Floor 50.8%
French Defense: Steinitz Variation384K games
50.8%Floor 50.7%
French Defense: Franco-Sicilian Defense2.6M games
50.7%Floor 50.6%
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Süchting Line245K games
50.8%Floor 50.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation224K games
50.8%Floor 50.6%
French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation2.4K games
52.1%Floor 50.5%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation201K games
50.6%Floor 50.4%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense837K games
50.4%Floor 50.3%
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation55K games
50.6%Floor 50.2%
French Defense: Advance Variation9.3M games
50.2%Floor 50.1%
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation47K games
50.4%Floor 50.0%
French Defense: Steinitz Attack2.4M games
50.1%Floor 50.0%
French Defense: Horwitz Attack385K games
50.1%Floor 50.0%
French Defense: St. George Defense, Sanky-George Gambit16K games
50.6%Floor 50.0%
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line63K games
50.3%Floor 50.0%
French Defense: Exchange Variation15M games
49.9%Floor 49.9%
French Defense: La Bourdonnais Variation5.1M games
49.8%Floor 49.8%
French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation12K games
50.6%Floor 49.8%
French Defense: Knight Variation26M games
49.8%Floor 49.8%
French Defense: Queen's Knight6.4M games
49.7%Floor 49.6%
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation3.4K games
51.0%Floor 49.6%
French Defense: Diemer-Duhm Gambit Accepted224K games
49.6%Floor 49.4%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap172K games
49.5%Floor 49.3%
French Defense: Classical Variation, Richter Attack100K games
49.5%Floor 49.2%
French Defense: King's Indian Attack4.8M games
49.1%Floor 49.1%
Every French Defense variation, by name176
Analyze French Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense family scores 49.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.6% and 49.7% — from 131M Lichess games across 176 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
131M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense win rate?

Across the French Defense's 176 variations, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 131M rated games from Lichess.

How many French Defense variations are there?

176 French Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the French Defense perform best?

The French Defense family performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.1% (5.3M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the French Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.5% in Blitz (63M games) against 49.5% in Rapid (18M games).

How sharp is the French Defense?

French Defense games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the French Defense a good opening family?

The French Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 47.6% and loses 48.4%. Results differ between its 176 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.