French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line
138K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.7%.
Measured over 138K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 138K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 138K
- Best context
- 55.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 50.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.0%
- Draws
- 5.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 61.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (44 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (186 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 61.9% expected score (91 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (745 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (590 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 67.0% expected score (81 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (2,506 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (3,818 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (443 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (63 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (6,611 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (16,381 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,960 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (200 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (12,119 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (31,547 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (3,718 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (160 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (18,687 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (25,276 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (2,356 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.9% expected score (43 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (7,485 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (2,990 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (140 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line scores 52.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.3% and 52.7% — from 138K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 138K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line, White wins 50.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 138K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line perform best?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 60.8% (290 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.6% in Blitz (81K games) against 54.6% in Rapid (8.7K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 60.2%, draws 1.2% and loses 38.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.8%. It rests on 290 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 48K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.3%, draws 5.8% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.4%, draws 7.2% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 81K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.0%, draws 7.1% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 50.2%, draws 10.3% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 478 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line a good opening?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.0% of its games and loses 45.1%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.