French Defense: Knight Variation
26M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 26M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 26M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 26M
- Best context
- 58.2% at 2200-2499 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 39.7% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.7% at 0-999, 55.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (5,644 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (389,820 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (627,618 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (277,422 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (2,416 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.1% expected score (17,123 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (821,556 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,189,547 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (413,166 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (9,394 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (32,047 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,348,319 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,931,108 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (596,049 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (19,553 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (44,104 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,824,925 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (2,580,409 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (763,378 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (33,391 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (31,145 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (2,013,415 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (2,712,487 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (747,830 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (28,932 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (19,909 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,854,586 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,951,040 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (481,788 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (12,911 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (7,660 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,197,035 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (668,989 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (120,222 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (1,419 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (2,450 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (593,552 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (110,962 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (12,034 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (162 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (181 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (91,095 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (5,590 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (199 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Knight Variation scores 50.3% for White — we are 90% confident it is 50.3% — from 26M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 26M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Knight Variation, White wins 48.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 26M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Knight Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Knight Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.0% (97K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Knight Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Knight Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.6% in Blitz (12M games) against 50.8% in Rapid (3.4M games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Knight Variation?
The French Defense: Knight Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 2.5M Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 3.9M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 5.2M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 5.5M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 4.3M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 2.0M Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 719K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.3%, draws 7.4% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 97K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 46.2%, draws 1.6% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 160K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 10M Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 12M Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 3.4M Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Knight Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 47.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 108K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Knight Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Knight Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.3% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.