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French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit

150K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.9%Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 47.1%Based on 150K games
0%46.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 47.1%
Outcome Distribution
45.2%3.4%51.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...f5
French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit
Analyzen=150K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 46.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 47.1%), based on 150K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -1.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.9% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.7% win rate (27,600 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.4% win rate (24,477 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.6% win rate (19,077 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (20,922 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (22,931 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (19,419 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.2% win rate (11,682 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.7% win rate (3,051 games)
  • 2500+: 39.6% win rate (452 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.3% win rate (1,521 games)
  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (66,273 games)
  • Blitz: 43.7% win rate (59,393 games)
  • Rapid: 41.6% win rate (21,653 games)
  • Classical: 34.8% win rate (771 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (56 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (5,797 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (14,190 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (7,478 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (79 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.0% expected score (222 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (7,015 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (11,422 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (5,626 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (192 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (387 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (7,516 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (7,411 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (3,540 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (223 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (430 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10,612 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (7,673 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (2,028 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.2% expected score (179 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (218 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (11,967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (9,273 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (1,411 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 28.0% expected score (62 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (100 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (10,639 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (7,380 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,266 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (9,600 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (1,758 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (2,698 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (272 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (429 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate?

The French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 150K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (19K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (61.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.3%) by 13.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit?

The French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 54.5% (90% CI: 53.9%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 53.2% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 51.2%-58.8%) win rate for white, based on 452 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.4%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.1%) win rate for white (66K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.6%) win rate for white (59K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.1%-54.2%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 61.2% (90% CI: 58.3%-64.0%) win rate for white (771 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.