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French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit

150K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.9%

40%55%
Floor46.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.1%.

Measured over 150K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 150K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
150K
Best context
51.4% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
40.6% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −1.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.9% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.8% at 0-999, 43.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (56 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (5,797 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (14,190 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (7,478 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (79 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.0% expected score (222 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (7,015 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (11,422 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (5,626 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (192 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (387 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (7,516 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (7,411 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (3,540 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (223 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (430 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10,612 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (7,673 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (2,028 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.2% expected score (179 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (218 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (11,967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (9,273 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (1,411 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 28.0% expected score (62 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (100 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (10,639 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (7,380 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,266 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (9,600 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (1,758 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (2,698 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (272 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (429 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit scores 46.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.7% and 47.1% — from 150K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
150K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 150K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.8% (23K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.7% in Blitz (59K games) against 44.0% in Rapid (22K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit?

The French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 452 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.3%, draws 1.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 66K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 59K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 34.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 61.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.8%. It rests on 771 Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Knight Variation, Franco-Hiva Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.2% of its games and loses 51.4%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.