French Defense: Exchange Variation
15M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 15M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 15M
- Best context
- 57.9% at 2500+ Rapid
- Worst context
- 41.1% at 1000-1199 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.9% at 0-999, 56.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.8% expected score (440 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (86,865 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (114,032 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (48,332 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (328 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (1,214 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (237,026 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (270,265 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (93,484 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (1,607 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (2,971 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (486,212 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (590,551 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (176,681 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (4,883 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (6,169 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (836,493 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,153,878 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (311,434 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (13,595 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (7,057 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,154,173 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,840,119 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (458,087 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (21,950 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (4,576 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,311,230 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2,027,701 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (459,059 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (19,228 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (2,226 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,078,152 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,003,476 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (193,116 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (4,615 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (1,047 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (637,783 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (247,243 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (32,956 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (619 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.0% expected score (153 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (124,278 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (18,044 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (1,083 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (45 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Exchange Variation scores 50.1% for White — we are 90% confident it is 50.1% — from 15M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 15M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Exchange Variation, White wins 47.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 15M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.2% (144K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Exchange Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.6% in Blitz (7.3M games) against 51.1% in Rapid (1.8M games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Exchange Variation?
The French Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 250K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 604K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 3.5M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 3.8M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 48.1%, draws 6.6% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 920K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.0%, draws 8.3% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 144K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 47.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 47.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 6.0M Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 7.3M Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.0%, draws 6.1% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.8M Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 46.5%, draws 7.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 67K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Exchange Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.7% of its games and loses 47.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.