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French Defense: Normal Variation

10M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.1%

45%60%
Floor52.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 10M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
10M
Best context
67.3% at 2000-2199 Classical
Worst context
37.4% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.3% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 61.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (1,114 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (103,463 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (297,068 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (147,560 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (1,624 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (2,959 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (188,646 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (479,116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (192,030 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (5,841 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (7,117 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (328,796 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (766,975 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (279,233 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (13,024 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (16,378 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (480,756 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (1,068,818 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (354,753 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (21,975 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (20,262 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (634,657 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,209,828 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (359,132 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (14,598 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (9,056 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (697,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (973,174 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (243,767 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (6,278 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (3,190 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (544,147 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (381,145 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (69,614 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 67.3% expected score (725 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (1,004 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (298,079 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (67,521 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.4% expected score (6,614 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (89 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (46,120 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (2,818 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (171 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 82.9% expected score (38 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
French Defense: La Bourdonnais Variation
48.6%
Analyze French Defense: Normal Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Normal Variation scores 52.1% for White — we are 90% confident it is 52.1% — from 10M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
10M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Normal Variation, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 10M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Normal Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Normal Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.1% (49K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Normal Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (5.2M games) against 53.9% in Rapid (1.7M games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Normal Variation?

The French Defense: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 551K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 869K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 2.2M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 999K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 373K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.7%, draws 6.8% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 46.6%, draws 1.5% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 3.3M Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 5.2M Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 54.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 64K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Normal Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Normal Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.3% of its games and loses 46.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.