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French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.2%

40%55%
Floor45.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.8%.

Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
24K
Best context
58.4% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
34.9% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +10.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 17.7% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.6% at 0-999, 55.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (292 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (633 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (409 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (1,115 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (528 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (593 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (1,429 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (681 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 22.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (83 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (846 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (1,891 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (687 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.7% expected score (53 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (2,274 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (520 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,337 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (2,236 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (306 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (667 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,555 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (254 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (769 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (1,222 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 28.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (912 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit scores 46.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.7% and 46.8% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.8% (2.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.3% in Blitz (13K games) against 38.4% in Rapid (3.6K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit?

The French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 38.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.1%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 38.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 57.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 40.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 52.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 52.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 942 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 43.0%, draws 0.9% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 167 Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 36.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 59.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.4%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 28.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 65.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 31.5%. It rests on 212 Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Baeuerle Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.4% of its games and loses 52.0%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.