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French Defense: Advance Variation

9.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.9%

45%55%
Floor49.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 9.3M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.3M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
9.3M
Best context
60.6% at 2200-2499 UltraBullet
Worst context
45.3% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.8% at 0-999, 59.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (270 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (104,007 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (261,414 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (72,345 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (296 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (706 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (214,243 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (542,558 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (196,636 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (2,335 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (2,057 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (338,513 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (807,914 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (323,326 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (9,715 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (6,232 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (447,703 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,042,383 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (404,902 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (20,969 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (5,957 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (475,507 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,039,390 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (401,037 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (22,841 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (3,807 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (437,144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (794,833 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (254,163 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (10,797 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.9% expected score (1,822 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (308,729 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (336,375 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (71,803 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (1,614 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (699 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (167,017 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (97,310 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (9,574 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (31,984 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (5,700 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.3% expected score (169 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (18 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
French Defense: La Bourdonnais Variation
48.6%
Continuations (10)
French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System
45.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack
46.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit
50.8%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line
50.4%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation
43.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation
46.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Attack
53.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line
51.4%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation scores 49.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.8% and 49.9% — from 9.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
9.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Advance Variation, White wins 48.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 9.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.6% (38K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Advance Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (4.9M games) against 50.0% in Rapid (1.7M games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation?

The French Defense: Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 438K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 956K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 46.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 720K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 275K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 51.6%, draws 1.2% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 2.5M Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 4.9M Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 69K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.0% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.