9.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 49.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.8% and 49.9%), based on 9.3M Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 50% → 54%
Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Advance Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.3M rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Advance Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (38K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
UltraBullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (47.4%) by 4.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 438K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 956K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 720K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 275K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.1%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.2%) win rate for white (2.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.6%) win rate for white (4.9M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.8%) win rate for white (1.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.7%) win rate for white (69K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.
The French Defense: Advance Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.