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Analyzer

French Defense: Mediterranean Defense

995K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.9%Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 46.9%Based on 995K games
0%46.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 46.9%
Outcome Distribution
45.2%3.3%51.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Nf6
French Defense: Mediterranean Defense
Analyzen=995K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 46.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 46.9%), based on 995K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.4% win rate (75,874 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.6% win rate (109,714 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (153,362 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.1% win rate (189,522 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.3% win rate (197,256 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.6% win rate (152,649 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.5% win rate (76,622 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.1% win rate (33,944 games)
  • 2500+: 38.1% win rate (6,119 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.1% win rate (12,851 games)
  • Bullet: 46.2% win rate (318,257 games)
  • Blitz: 45.0% win rate (484,997 games)
  • Rapid: 43.6% win rate (171,453 games)
  • Classical: 40.9% win rate (7,504 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (111 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (12,994 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (38,626 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (23,890 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (444 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (23,979 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (57,773 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (26,526 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (992 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (1,216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (37,598 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (80,731 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (32,088 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (1,729 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (4,298 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (49,400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (95,379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (38,063 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (2,382 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (4,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (58,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (102,695 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (29,879 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (1,665 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (1,544 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (58,712 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (76,476 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (15,490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (427 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (488 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (43,349 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (27,989 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (4,741 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.9% expected score (55 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.9% expected score (272 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (27,838 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (5,065 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (768 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (5,843 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (263 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.7% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Mediterranean Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate?

The French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 995K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense perform best?

The French Defense: Mediterranean Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.7% win rate for white (6.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (54.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.6%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense?

The French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 110K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 153K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 190K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 197K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 153K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 77K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 56.7% (90% CI: 55.6%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.3%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.7%) win rate for white (318K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white (485K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.3%) win rate for white (171K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.3%-55.2%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense a good opening?

The French Defense: Mediterranean Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.