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French Defense: Mediterranean Defense

995K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.9%

40%55%
Floor46.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 995K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 995K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
995K
Best context
55.1% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Worst context
40.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.8% at 0-999, 33.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (111 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (12,994 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (38,626 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (23,890 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (444 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (23,979 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (57,773 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (26,526 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (992 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (1,216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (37,598 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (80,731 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (32,088 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (1,729 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (4,298 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (49,400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (95,379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (38,063 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (2,382 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (4,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (58,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (102,695 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (29,879 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (1,665 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (1,544 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (58,712 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (76,476 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (15,490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (427 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (488 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (43,349 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (27,989 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (4,741 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.9% expected score (55 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.9% expected score (272 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (27,838 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (5,065 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (768 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (5,843 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (263 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.7% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Mediterranean Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense scores 46.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.8% and 46.9% — from 995K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
995K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 995K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense perform best?

The French Defense: Mediterranean Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 48.3% (76K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.9% in Blitz (485K games) against 45.8% in Rapid (171K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense?

The French Defense: Mediterranean Defense has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 76K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 110K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 153K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 190K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 197K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 153K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 77K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.7%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 1.3% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.2%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 318K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 485K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 171K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Mediterranean Defense a good opening?

The French Defense: Mediterranean Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.2% of its games and loses 51.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.