French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation
White scores
52.0%
Wins more49.7% won4.6% drawn45.8% lost
Every level and clock · 3.1M games
Win rate by rating
White’s score gets better as the rating rises.
| Rating | Score against even | Score | Won | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.8% | 48.1% | 23K | ||
| 51.8% | 50.3% | 58K | ||
| 51.7% | 50.2% | 142K | ||
| 51.7% | 50.0% | 326K | ||
| 51.8% | 49.8% | 650K | ||
| 51.7% | 49.3% | 945K | ||
| 52.1% | 49.4% | 631K | ||
| 53.0% | 50.0% | 267K | ||
| 55.5% | 51.7% | 41K |
Every clock · Tap a row to set your level.
Is the Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation good?
Yes, for White, across every level and clock.
Floor 51.9 is the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Where it wins · rating × clock
Faint, hatched: few games, never the best or worst. –: too few to score. Tap a cell to set your level and clock.
Average game length
How do you score in your own openings?
Leaks reads your recent games and lists the openings you score worst in.
More French Defense lines
Most played first; each line counts its own games.
- Exchange Variation50.0%1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.exd536M games
- Knight Variation50.4%2.Nf328M games
- Normal Variation52.1%1.e4 e6 2.d415M games
- Advance Variation49.9%3.e513M games
- La Bourdonnais Variation50.2%2.f47.6M games
- Queen's Knight50.8%2.Nc37.5M games
Methodology
Across every level and clock, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation scores 52.0% for White, with a range running from 51.9% to 52.0% around that figure, from 3.1M rated Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played September 2023 to August 2026.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.1M rated games played on Lichess (2023-09 to 2026-08). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt September 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- What the Floor and Edge at worst are
- The Floor is the worst score you would still get, 90% confident: the low end of a figure’s range, not its average. Edge at worst is how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident, so above zero, that side wins more than it loses even on a bad day. Each is stated for the rating and clock shown, over the games that reached the position. They are on different scales: a score sits at 50 when the sides are level, an edge at zero.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A figure on it needs 100 games at its rating and clock: short of that the answer reads a wider scope and says so, a table row shows only its count, and a map cell shows a dash. Under 1.0K games a figure is drawn faint, and never leads a list or counts as the best or worst place the line wins. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.