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French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation

2.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.9%

45%55%
Floor51.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.1M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.1M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.1M
Best context
55.3% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
48.4% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.4%
Draws
4.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.4% at 0-999, 52.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (6,122 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (6,896 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (2,417 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (176 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (16,708 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (16,581 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (5,032 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (393 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (42,803 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (39,689 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (10,609 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (313 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (864 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (92,190 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (99,196 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (23,013 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (1,111 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (1,056 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (165,894 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (221,036 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (43,796 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (2,660 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (235,839 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (338,085 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (62,179 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (3,142 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (206,068 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (189,728 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (34,596 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (1,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (374 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (125,072 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (48,666 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (6,019 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.6% expected score (91 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (24,252 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (3,015 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation scores 51.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.9% and 52.0% — from 2.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 2.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.3% (27K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.1% in Blitz (963K games) against 52.1% in Rapid (188K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 94K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 216K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 434K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 640K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.4%, draws 5.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 432K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 180K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.3%, draws 7.9% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 49.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 915K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 963K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 188K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.5%, draws 8.3% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.6% of its games and loses 45.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.