3.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a 51.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.6% and 52.4%), based on 3.4K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 50%
Best in Classical (57%), worst in Rapid (45%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 44.7%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 48.6% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (47.7%) outperforms Rapid (47.8%) by -0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 43.2%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 135 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 43.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 503 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 41.2%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 38.1%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 408 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-50.2%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.4%-47.0%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 41.5%-54.1%) win rate for white (169 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Leningrad Variation is slightly favors black with a 46.1% (90% CI: 44.7%-47.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.