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French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation

857K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.4%Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 46.5%Based on 857K games
0%46.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 46.5%
Outcome Distribution
44.3%4.2%51.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Nc6
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation
Analyzen=857K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 46.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.3% and 46.5%), based on 857K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.8% win rate (1,236 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.6% win rate (3,032 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.3% win rate (8,937 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.3% win rate (31,388 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.5% win rate (96,800 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.2% win rate (235,343 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.7% win rate (283,083 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.4% win rate (169,702 games)
  • 2500+: 41.2% win rate (27,322 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.6% win rate (113 games)
  • Bullet: 45.3% win rate (262,779 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (508,393 games)
  • Rapid: 43.1% win rate (81,904 games)
  • Classical: 42.5% win rate (3,654 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (367 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (546 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (318 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,519 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,101 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (396 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 75.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (4,277 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,698 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (920 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (41 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (12,217 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (15,771 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (3,188 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (188 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (39 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (26,953 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (58,520 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (10,542 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (746 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (51,115 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (156,490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (26,061 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (1,651 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (70,155 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (181,670 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (30,365 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (880 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (74,097 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (85,559 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (9,909 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.8% expected score (129 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (22,079 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (5,038 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.5% expected score (205 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Continuations (1)
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line
50.0%
Analyze French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 857K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (27K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (52.0%) by -0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 235K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 283K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 170K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 44.3%-59.6%) win rate for white (113 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.4%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.9%) win rate for white (263K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.5%) win rate for white (508K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.8%) win rate for white (82K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.0%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Closed Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.