French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation
164K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.4%.
Measured over 164K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 164K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 164K
- Best context
- 57.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 49.1% at 1200-1399 Bullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 61.4% at 0-999, 57.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (177 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (53 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (603 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (327 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (46 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (2,152 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (2,376 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (230 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (4,650 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (11,081 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (1,354 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (99 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (8,096 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (29,520 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (4,714 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (294 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (12,506 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (35,802 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (5,352 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (149 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (13,562 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (21,283 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (2,426 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 67.8% expected score (52 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (5,102 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (1,613 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (103 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation scores 53.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.0% and 53.4% — from 164K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 164K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation, White wins 51.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 164K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.6% (6.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (102K games) against 53.0% in Rapid (14K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.3%, draws 1.8% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 245 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.9%, draws 1.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 979 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 50.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 102K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 50.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 48.7%, draws 7.9% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 612 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.0% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.