TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.6%Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 46.3%Based on 15K games
0%45.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 46.3%
Outcome Distribution
42.0%7.3%50.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Qd8
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation
Analyzen=15K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.3%

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 45.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 46.3%), based on 15K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 36% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 35.5% win rate (14 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.7% win rate (35 games)
  • 1200-1399: 36.3% win rate (121 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.4% win rate (485 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.6% win rate (1,398 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.5% win rate (3,336 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.7% win rate (4,545 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.7% win rate (4,309 games)
  • 2500+: 43.0% win rate (1,082 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (32%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.7% win rate (4,008 games)
  • Blitz: 41.2% win rate (9,310 games)
  • Rapid: 38.3% win rate (1,896 games)
  • Classical: 32.4% win rate (111 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 33.8% expected score (54 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (268 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.4% expected score (69 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 18.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (370 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (806 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (212 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (628 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (2,118 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (549 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (41 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (927 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (2,941 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (648 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.0% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (1,273 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (2,658 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (360 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 32.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (598 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (448 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 60.8% win rate for white (121 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.3%) outperforms Bullet (48.8%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a sharpness score of 92.7 (decisive), meaning 92.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 60.8% (90% CI: 53.5%-67.9%) win rate for white, based on 121 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 57.0% (90% CI: 53.3%-60.7%) win rate for white, based on 485 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.3%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 43.8%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 10.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.1%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.1%) win rate for white (9.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.3%-54.1%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 47.8%-63.2%) win rate for white (111 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.0%.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Eliskases Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.