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French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit

26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.2%

40%55%
Floor47.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.7%.

Measured over 26K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 26K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
26K
Best context
51.9% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Worst context
43.0% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −3.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.9% at 0-999, 35.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (648 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,917 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (878 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (54 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (878 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (1,114 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (508 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (116 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,361 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (912 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (314 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (240 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (2,161 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,025 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (209 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (130 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (2,798 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,313 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (52 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (2,866 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,412 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (117 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (3,077 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (553 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (76 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (1,021 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (151 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.8% expected score (128 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit scores 48.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.7% and 48.7% — from 26K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
26K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate?

Playing the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 26K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.5% (3.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (8.4K games) against 45.9% in Rapid (2.3K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit?

The French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 35.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 58.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.4%. It rests on 132 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.5%, draws 1.7% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 624 Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: King's Indian Attack, Franco-Hiva Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 50.0%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.