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French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation

11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.7%Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 48.4%Based on 11K games
0%47.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 48.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.8%5.7%49.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...b6
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation
Analyzen=11K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.7%

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.9% and 48.4%), based on 11K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~39%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.4% win rate (8 games)
  • 1200-1399: 60.0% win rate (16 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.7% win rate (66 games)
  • 1600-1799: 40.7% win rate (329 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.3% win rate (1,615 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.3% win rate (3,374 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.6% win rate (4,572 games)
  • 2500+: 38.2% win rate (1,221 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (37%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 46.5% win rate (3,071 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (7,221 games)
  • Rapid: 44.7% win rate (890 games)
  • Classical: 37.3% win rate (24 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (192 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (313 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (1,154 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (136 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (490 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (2,526 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (353 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,441 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (2,771 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (357 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (682 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (533 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.8% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (49.8%) outperforms Rapid (46.9%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 329 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.1%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.8%) win rate for white (7.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 44.2%-49.7%) win rate for white (890 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Botvinnik Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.