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French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit

858K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.6%

45%60%
Floor52.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.7%.

Measured over 858K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 858K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
858K
Best context
57.9% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
45.3% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +13.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.9% at 0-999, 57.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (1,712 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,676 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (348 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (6,637 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (8,180 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,153 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (15,150 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (22,075 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (6,693 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (135 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (26,174 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (49,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (16,295 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (648 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (39,334 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (100,399 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (30,825 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (1,973 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (51,388 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (143,590 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (41,593 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (2,661 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (48,286 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (113,919 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (26,408 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (955 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (34,597 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (42,661 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (6,367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (104 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (11,378 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (4,162 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (161 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Continuations (3)
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line
51.4%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation
54.7%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation
56.1%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit scores 52.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 52.7% — from 858K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
858K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, White wins 50.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 858K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.5% (16K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (486K games) against 52.8% in Rapid (131K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 44K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 92K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 173K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 239K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 190K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 84K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 54.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 235K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 486K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 131K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.8% of its games and loses 45.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.