French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation
43K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
56.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.9%.
Measured over 43K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 43K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 43K
- Best context
- 58.6% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 55.3% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.6% at 0-999, 62.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (85 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (85 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 75.6% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (257 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 61.9% expected score (265 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (83 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (381 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (901 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (196 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (915 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (2,934 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (587 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (38 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (1,570 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (5,563 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (1,344 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (87 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (2,498 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (8,261 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (1,510 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (59 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (3,941 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (7,300 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (694 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 72.5% expected score (23 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (1,952 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (1,076 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.5% expected score (33 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation scores 56.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.2% and 56.9% — from 43K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 43K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation, White wins 54.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 43K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 57.4% (4.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 56.1% in Blitz (26K games) against 57.9% in Rapid (4.5K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 57.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 190 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 57.9%, draws 1.2% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 607 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 55.2%, draws 1.5% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 56.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 54.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 54.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 54.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.6%, draws 5.2% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 54.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 55.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 55.1%, draws 7.0% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 219 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.7% of its games and loses 41.6%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.