French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation
43K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.7%.
Measured over 43K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 43K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 43K
- Best context
- 56.0% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 48.1% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.6%
- Draws
- 5.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 69.8% at 0-999, 59.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (41 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (61 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (148 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (276 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (62 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (583 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,218 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (224 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,528 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (4,565 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (762 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 69.4% expected score (68 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (3,310 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (9,516 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (1,071 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (48 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (5,500 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (9,382 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (763 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (2,566 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (792 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (49 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation scores 51.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.9% and 51.7% — from 43K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 43K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation, White wins 48.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 43K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.9% (3.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.8% in Blitz (26K games) against 49.9% in Rapid (3.0K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 132 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 489 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 48.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.3%, draws 7.2% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.9%, draws 5.8% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 45.8%, draws 8.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 50.8%, draws 7.5% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 165 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Positional Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.6% of its games and loses 46.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.