French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line
61K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.2%.
Measured over 61K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 61K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 61K
- Best context
- 52.8% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.5% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.8%
- Draws
- 7.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.3% at 0-999, 49.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (47 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (84 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (97 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (30 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (268 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (319 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (66 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 80.5% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (711 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,262 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (177 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,976 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (4,845 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (585 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (50 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (4,147 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (11,146 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,142 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (66 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (8,712 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (14,202 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (1,015 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (7,125 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (2,784 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (124 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (18 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line scores 47.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 48.2% — from 61K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 61K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line, Black wins 44.2%, draws 7.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 61K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line perform best?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 51.2% (2.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.1% in Blitz (35K games) against 45.8% in Rapid (3.2K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line has a sharpness score of 92.8 (decisive), meaning 92.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 214 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 670 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.3%, draws 6.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 37.1%, draws 15.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.6%, draws 7.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.6%, draws 7.0% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.7%, draws 8.2% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 43.1%, draws 16.9% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 197 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line a good opening?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.2% of its games and loses 48.6%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.