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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation

25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.9%Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 52.4%Based on 25K games
0%51.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 52.4%
Outcome Distribution
48.9%5.9%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Qd7
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation
Analyzen=25K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 51.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.4% and 52.4%), based on 25K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 32% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 31.9% win rate (91 games)
  • 1000-1199: 36.2% win rate (91 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.1% win rate (95 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.5% win rate (167 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.2% win rate (543 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.1% win rate (2,713 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.9% win rate (8,232 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.2% win rate (11,181 games)
  • 2500+: 43.3% win rate (1,780 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 50.2% win rate (6,208 games)
  • Blitz: 49.0% win rate (16,879 games)
  • Rapid: 43.8% win rate (1,739 games)
  • Classical: 43.5% win rate (64 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 34.7% expected score (54 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 29.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (39 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (41 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (86 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (282 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (209 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (573 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (1,846 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (1,763 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (5,873 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,579 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (7,915 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (682 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (925 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (812 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (43 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 25K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 65.4% win rate for white (91 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.0%) outperforms Classical (48.1%) by -0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 36.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 167 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 39.4%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 543 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 41.3%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.3%-45.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.8%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.8%) win rate for white (6.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.3%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.0%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Petrosian Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.