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French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense

837K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.4%

45%55%
Floor50.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.5%.

Measured over 837K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 837K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
837K
Best context
55.8% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Worst context
44.1% at 2000-2199 Classical
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
93.7%
Draws
6.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.2% at 0-999, 47.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (577 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (777 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (277 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,288 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (1,712 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (719 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 65.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (3,924 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (4,264 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (1,875 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (67 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (157 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (10,983 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (13,440 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (4,385 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (280 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (243 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (23,683 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (43,329 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (10,350 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (820 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (168 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (47,392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (110,711 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (21,272 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (1,614 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (134 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (83,839 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (146,622 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (25,274 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (1,140 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (189 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (125,377 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (80,779 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (11,603 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (242 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (49,186 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (7,830 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (420 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (31 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense scores 50.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.3% and 50.5% — from 837K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
837K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense, Black wins 47.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 837K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense perform best?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 53.9% (3.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.2% in Blitz (409K games) against 50.2% in Rapid (76K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 181K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.5%, draws 6.6% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 257K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.1%, draws 7.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 218K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.7%, draws 8.7% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 963 Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 346K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.6%, draws 7.1% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 409K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.9%, draws 8.5% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 76K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.1%, draws 12.0% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense a good opening?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.2% of its games and loses 46.4%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.