French Defense: Pelikan Variation
355K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.5%.
Measured over 355K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 355K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 355K
- Best context
- 54.3% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 45.3% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.7%
- Draws
- 3.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 36.0% at 0-999, 64.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 24.6% expected score (26 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,677 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (3,766 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (1,681 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (52 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (4,196 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (5,910 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (2,344 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (49 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (173 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (8,086 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (9,869 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (3,305 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.5% expected score (94 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (451 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (16,567 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (16,234 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (4,264 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (172 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (910 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (25,622 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (28,248 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (5,385 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (186 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (372 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (44,539 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (46,468 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (7,086 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (159 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (48 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (45,255 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (25,773 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (3,440 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (30 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (30,291 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (6,170 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (693 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (5,201 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (213 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 51.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.2% and 51.5% — from 355K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 355K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Pelikan Variation, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 355K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Pelikan Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Pelikan Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.7% (5.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (143K games) against 49.8% in Rapid (28K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation?
The French Defense: Pelikan Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 43.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 99K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.4%, draws 6.5% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 50.3%, draws 1.0% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 181K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 143K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 41.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 712 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Pelikan Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.7% of its games and loses 47.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.