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French Defense: Pelikan Variation

355K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.4%

45%55%
Floor51.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.5%.

Measured over 355K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 355K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
355K
Best context
54.3% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
45.3% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.9% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 36.0% at 0-999, 64.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 24.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,677 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (3,766 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (1,681 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (52 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (4,196 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (5,910 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (2,344 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (173 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (8,086 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (9,869 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (3,305 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.5% expected score (94 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (451 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (16,567 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (16,234 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (4,264 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (910 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (25,622 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (28,248 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (5,385 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (186 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (372 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (44,539 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (46,468 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (7,086 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (45,255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (25,773 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (3,440 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (30,291 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (6,170 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (693 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (5,201 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (213 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Pelikan Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 51.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.2% and 51.5% — from 355K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
355K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 51.4% (range, 90% confident: 51.2% – 51.5%) for White, based on 355K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Pelikan Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Pelikan Variation performs best at 2500+, where it scores 53.7% for White (5.4K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, Bullet (51.7%) outperforms Classical (43.6%). Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation?

The French Defense: Pelikan Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 45.6% (range, 90% confident: 44.6% – 46.5%) for White, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 48.7% (range, 90% confident: 48.0% – 49.4%) for White, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 50.3% (range, 90% confident: 49.7% – 50.8%) for White, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 50.4% (range, 90% confident: 50.0% – 50.9%) for White, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 51.3% (range, 90% confident: 50.9% – 51.6%) for White, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 52.2% (range, 90% confident: 51.9% – 52.5%) for White, based on 99K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 51.7% (range, 90% confident: 51.4% – 52.0%) for White, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 51.9% (range, 90% confident: 51.5% – 52.4%) for White, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 53.7% (range, 90% confident: 52.6% – 54.9%) for White, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 50.8% (range, 90% confident: 49.0% – 52.6%) for White (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 51.7% (range, 90% confident: 51.5% – 51.9%) for White (181K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 51.3% (range, 90% confident: 51.1% – 51.5%) for White (143K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 49.8% (range, 90% confident: 49.4% – 50.3%) for White (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Pelikan Variation scores 43.6% (range, 90% confident: 40.5% – 46.7%) for White (712 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the French Defense: Pelikan Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Pelikan Variation is about level with a 49.7% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 49.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.