French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
73K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.
Measured over 73K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 73K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 73K
- Best context
- 52.9% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.6% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.1% at 0-999, 48.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.1% expected score (109 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (96 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (331 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (528 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (110 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (680 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (1,501 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (415 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (1,368 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (3,465 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,047 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,668 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (7,334 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (2,377 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (161 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (1,943 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (10,924 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (3,733 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (252 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (2,957 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (10,989 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (2,907 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (155 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (4,444 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (9,005 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,150 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (47 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (2,114 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (1,369 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (63 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation scores 48.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 49.1% — from 73K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 73K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 73K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 60.2% (221 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.1% in Blitz (45K games) against 48.8% in Rapid (12K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 58.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.2%. It rests on 221 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 971 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.1%, draws 6.1% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.9%, draws 8.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 45K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.8%, draws 10.0% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 682 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 48.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.