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French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line

608K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.6%

45%60%
Floor52.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.7%.

Measured over 608K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 608K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
608K
Best context
57.9% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
43.4% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.8% at 0-999, 54.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (783 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (569 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (81 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (2,909 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (3,095 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (635 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (7,134 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (9,491 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (2,636 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (15,282 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (28,274 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (7,312 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (329 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (23,228 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (64,967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (17,475 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (1,063 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (30,120 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (108,160 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (28,870 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (1,644 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (32,625 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (94,809 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (22,323 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (758 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (35,216 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (46,640 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (7,077 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (133 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (9,600 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (4,116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (348 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (26 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line scores 52.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 52.7% — from 608K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
608K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line, White wins 50.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 608K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.1% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.3% in Blitz (360K games) against 52.6% in Rapid (87K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 44.0%, draws 1.8% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 169K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 151K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 89K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.5%, draws 7.1% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 157K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 360K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 87K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.9%, draws 7.5% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.4% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.