French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line
99K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
42.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 42.9%.
Measured over 99K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 99K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 99K
- Best context
- 51.8% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 37.9% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.8%
- Draws
- 5.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.2%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (130 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (205 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (44 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (470 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (763 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (193 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (919 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,722 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (448 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (1,951 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (2,952 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (893 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (3,838 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (6,087 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (1,167 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 34.9% expected score (58 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (6,537 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (10,046 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (1,507 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (85 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (9,886 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (16,056 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (1,930 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (60 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 40.1% expected score (13,742 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (9,423 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (1,148 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (5,846 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (638 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line scores 42.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.4% and 42.9% — from 99K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 99K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line, Black wins 40.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 99K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line perform best?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (1.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 43.0% in Blitz (48K games) against 44.0% in Rapid (7.4K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 379 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 38.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 37.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.2%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 34.4%, draws 7.6% and loses 58.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.2%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 39.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 43K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 40.1%, draws 5.8% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.6%, draws 6.8% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 35.3%, draws 11.9% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.3%. It rests on 272 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line a good opening?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 40.0% of its games and loses 54.8%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.