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French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line

99K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score42.6%Range (90% confident): 42.4% – 42.9%Based on 99K games
0%42.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.4% – 42.9%
Outcome Distribution
40.0%5.2%54.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...O-O
French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=99K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 42.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.4% and 42.9%), based on 99K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 34%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.4% win rate (379 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.9% win rate (1,428 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.9% win rate (3,099 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.2% win rate (5,850 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.7% win rate (11,176 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.4% win rate (18,209 games)
  • 2000-2199: 38.9% win rate (27,938 games)
  • 2200-2499: 37.4% win rate (24,331 games)
  • 2500+: 34.4% win rate (6,514 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (44%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.0% win rate (86 games)
  • Bullet: 39.9% win rate (43,319 games)
  • Blitz: 40.1% win rate (47,892 games)
  • Rapid: 40.6% win rate (7,355 games)
  • Classical: 35.3% win rate (272 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (130 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (205 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (470 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (763 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (193 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (919 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,722 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (448 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (1,951 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (2,952 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (893 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (3,838 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (6,087 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (1,167 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 34.9% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (6,537 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (10,046 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (1,507 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (85 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (9,886 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (16,056 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (1,930 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 40.1% expected score (13,742 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (9,423 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (1,148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (5,846 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (638 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.5%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 99K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line perform best?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 58.0% win rate for white (6.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (56.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (53.1%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 379 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 46.6% (90% CI: 44.4%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.4%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 58.0% (90% CI: 57.0%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.6%-56.4%) win rate for white (43K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.5%) win rate for white (48K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.6%) win rate for white (7.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line has a 52.8% (90% CI: 47.9%-57.8%) win rate for white (272 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.9%.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.5%-55.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.