2.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation has a 53.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.3% and 55.4%), based on 2.7K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 47%
Best in Bullet (56%), worst in Classical (37%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.0%-45.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 42.9% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (44.4%) outperforms Rapid (41.8%) by 2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 36.9%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 232 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 40.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 780 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 40.7%-45.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 40.4%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 313 Lichess games. Average game length is 48 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation has a 41.1% (90% CI: 37.9%-44.4%) win rate for white (622 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.5%-46.2%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 35.0%-48.8%) win rate for white (136 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.5%.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Eingorn Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.0%-45.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.