French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation
6.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.9%.
Measured over 6.7K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.7K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 6.7K
- Best context
- 56.8% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 52.5% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.4%
- Draws
- 4.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 40.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (54 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (124 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (143 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (507 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (78 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (377 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (1,572 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (127 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (21 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (835 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (1,874 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (97 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (404 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (297 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (31 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation scores 52.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.8% and 53.9% — from 6.7K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 6.7K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation, Black wins 50.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 6.7K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 56.3% (2.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.8% in Blitz (4.4K games) against 42.2% in Rapid (368 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 53.1%, draws 1.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 203 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 733 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 54.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 50.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.2%, draws 8.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 737 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 51.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 51.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 37.5%, draws 9.3% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 368 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.5% of its games and loses 44.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.