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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation

6.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 53.9%Based on 6.7K games
0%52.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 53.9%
Outcome Distribution
50.5%4.6%44.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...O-O
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation
Analyzen=6.7K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 52.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.8% and 53.9%), based on 6.7K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.3% · Rapid best · Blitz worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 11.1% win rate (3 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.5% win rate (15 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.0% win rate (61 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.1% win rate (203 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.2% win rate (733 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.3% win rate (2,097 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.3% win rate (2,815 games)
  • 2500+: 41.2% win rate (737 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (51%), worst in Classical (36%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 51.3% win rate (1,845 games)
  • Blitz: 51.4% win rate (4,408 games)
  • Rapid: 37.5% win rate (368 games)
  • Classical: 36.3% win rate (44 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (507 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (377 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (1,572 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (127 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (835 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (1,874 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (97 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (404 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (297 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.9%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.2% win rate for white (737 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.2%) outperforms Blitz (43.9%) by 9.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 40.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 203 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 733 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 40.0%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.4%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 737 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.3%-47.2%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 42.7%-45.1%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-57.4%) win rate for white (368 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.3%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Warsaw Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.9%-45.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.