French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation
158 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 61.5%.
Measured over 158 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 158 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 158
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.2%
- Draws
- 2.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 1200-1399, 78.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (30 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.8% expected score (31 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation scores 55.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 61.5% — from 158 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 158+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation, Black wins 53.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 158 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 59.4% (52 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 53.6% of its games and loses 43.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.