French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation
10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.9%.
Measured over 10K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 10K
- Best context
- 53.9% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 43.7% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.5%
- Draws
- 6.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 1000-1199, 42.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (69 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.0% expected score (95 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (20 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (276 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (822 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (88 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (646 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (2,451 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (255 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,276 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (2,689 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (187 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (931 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (342 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation scores 49.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 49.9% — from 10K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 10K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation, Black wins 45.8%, draws 6.5% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 10K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation perform best?
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 53.1% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.5% in Blitz (6.4K games) against 47.1% in Rapid (568 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation?
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.8%, draws 6.7% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 185 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.1%, draws 5.9% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.8%, draws 6.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.6%, draws 10.1% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.2%, draws 6.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.7%, draws 10.8% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 568 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Lasker Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.8% of its games and loses 47.7%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.