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French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line

74K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.8%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.1%Based on 74K games
0%47.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.1%
Outcome Distribution
44.7%6.1%49.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Nc6
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line
Analyzen=74K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.1%

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 47.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 48.1%), based on 74K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.8% win rate (98 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.3% win rate (434 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.8% win rate (1,393 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.7% win rate (3,749 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.3% win rate (7,678 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.3% win rate (14,794 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.6% win rate (20,540 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.8% win rate (19,626 games)
  • 2500+: 41.7% win rate (5,288 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (64%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (20,349 games)
  • Blitz: 44.3% win rate (45,163 games)
  • Rapid: 40.3% win rate (7,602 games)
  • Classical: 37.5% win rate (482 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.4% expected score (52 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (39 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (201 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (195 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (603 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (634 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.3% expected score (151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,230 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,922 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,051 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (4,431 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (1,074 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (122 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (3,030 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (9,674 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (1,913 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (177 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (4,344 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (13,640 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (2,453 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (102 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (5,663 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (12,604 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (1,321 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 29.5% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (3,175 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (2,024 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (88 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 74K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line perform best?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (3.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.0%) outperforms Bullet (48.6%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 434 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.2%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.3%) win rate for white (45K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.0%) win rate for white (7.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a 54.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-58.2%) win rate for white (482 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line a good opening?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line is statistically balanced with a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.