French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line
74K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.1%.
Measured over 74K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 74K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 74K
- Best context
- 52.8% at 1200-1399 Bullet
- Worst context
- 40.8% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.9%
- Draws
- 6.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.8% at 0-999, 42.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.4% expected score (52 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (39 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (201 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (195 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (38 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (603 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (634 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.3% expected score (151 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,230 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,922 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (557 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (40 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,051 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (4,431 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (1,074 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (122 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (3,030 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (9,674 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (1,913 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (177 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (4,344 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (13,640 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (2,453 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (102 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (5,663 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (12,604 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (1,321 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 29.5% expected score (35 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (3,175 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (2,024 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (88 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line scores 47.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 48.1% — from 74K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 74K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line, Black wins 44.7%, draws 6.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 74K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line perform best?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.9% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.7% in Blitz (45K games) against 44.2% in Rapid (7.6K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 434 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.8%, draws 1.9% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.6%, draws 6.3% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.8%, draws 7.5% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.7%, draws 9.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.3%, draws 6.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 45K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.3%, draws 7.6% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.5%, draws 8.0% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 482 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line a good opening?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Main Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.7% of its games and loses 49.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.