6.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 47.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.6% and 48.6%), based on 6.5K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~46%)
Best in UltraBullet (82%), worst in Classical (29%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (57.3%) outperforms Bullet (47.7%) by 9.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 47.2% (90% CI: 41.7%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 222 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 46.6% (90% CI: 43.2%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 603 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 976 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 47.7% (90% CI: 45.9%-49.6%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.0%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a 57.3% (90% CI: 54.3%-60.4%) win rate for white (704 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line is statistically balanced with a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.