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French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line

6.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.6%

40%55%
Floor46.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.6%.

Measured over 6.5K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.5K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
6.5K
Best context
47.7% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Worst context
44.3% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
94.9%
Draws
5.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.6% · Rapid best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.5% at 0-999, 49.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (112 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (89 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (238 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (302 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (59 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (342 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (716 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (164 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (1,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (232 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (353 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (986 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.2% expected score (181 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (442 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (495 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (78 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line scores 47.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 48.6% — from 6.5K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
6.5K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line, Black wins 45.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 6.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line perform best?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (603 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.5% in Blitz (3.7K games) against 39.6% in Rapid (704 games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 222 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 603 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.0%, draws 6.8% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.2% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 976 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 36.5%, draws 6.2% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.6%. It rests on 704 Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line a good opening?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Advance Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.0% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.