Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

French Defense: Paulsen Variation

948K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
3.Nc3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.9%

45%60%
Floor52.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 948K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 948K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
948K
Best context
58.6% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
49.6% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.1% at 0-999, 57.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (7,479 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (30,482 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (17,992 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (170 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (99 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (11,381 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (32,264 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (19,826 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (643 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (297 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (18,068 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (40,238 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (22,581 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (1,099 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (1,140 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (27,772 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (55,971 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (25,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (1,533 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (1,399 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (46,264 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (76,078 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (26,564 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (1,358 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (759 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (61,871 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (101,871 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (24,899 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (1,068 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (321 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (72,417 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (83,647 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (13,499 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (400 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (61,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (34,681 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (3,584 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (16,863 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (4,572 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.3% expected score (116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Paulsen Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation scores 52.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.8% and 52.9% — from 948K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
948K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Paulsen Variation, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 948K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Paulsen Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Paulsen Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 54.0% (64K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.0% in Blitz (460K games) against 54.9% in Rapid (154K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation?

The French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 64K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 82K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 112K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 152K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 190K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 170K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 100K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.9%, draws 8.5% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 52.4%, draws 1.5% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 324K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 460K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 154K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Paulsen Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.9% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.