French Defense: Marshall Gambit
436K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.3%.
Measured over 436K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 436K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 436K
- Best context
- 53.1% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 38.7% at 1800-1999 Classical
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.9% at 0-999, 44.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (4,054 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (11,520 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (5,474 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (28 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (8,253 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (22,415 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (11,792 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (156 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.1% expected score (53 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (13,767 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (34,581 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (18,981 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (454 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (310 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (18,155 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (43,841 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (23,596 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (1,027 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (480 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (21,437 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (42,636 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (19,455 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (973 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (178 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (24,286 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (30,787 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (11,624 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (517 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (99 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (20,596 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (15,237 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (3,399 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.1% expected score (85 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (121 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (17,991 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (3,502 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.4% expected score (409 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (3,918 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (165 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.1% and 47.3% — from 436K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 436K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Marshall Gambit, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 436K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Marshall Gambit perform best?
The French Defense: Marshall Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.3% (21K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (205K games) against 45.6% in Rapid (95K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit?
The French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 87K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 85K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.0%, draws 1.5% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 132K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 205K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 95K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 40.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit a good opening?
The French Defense: Marshall Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.4% of its games and loses 51.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.