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French Defense: Marshall Gambit

436K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.2%Range (90% confident): 47.1% – 47.3%Based on 436K games
0%47.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.1% – 47.3%
Outcome Distribution
45.4%3.6%51.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c5
French Defense: Marshall Gambit
Analyzen=436K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 47.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.1% and 47.3%), based on 436K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +3.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.9 · Trap factor: +8.3 · n=436K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.5% win rate (21,080 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.6% win rate (42,626 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (67,836 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.4% win rate (86,929 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.0% win rate (84,981 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.5% win rate (67,392 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.4% win rate (39,416 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.7% win rate (22,029 games)
  • 2500+: 44.4% win rate (4,098 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.0% win rate (1,264 games)
  • Bullet: 48.2% win rate (132,457 games)
  • Blitz: 44.5% win rate (204,684 games)
  • Rapid: 43.5% win rate (94,735 games)
  • Classical: 40.8% win rate (3,247 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (4,054 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (11,520 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (5,474 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (8,253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (22,415 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (11,792 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (156 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.1% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (13,767 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (34,581 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (18,981 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (454 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (310 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (18,155 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (43,841 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (23,596 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (1,027 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (480 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (21,437 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (42,636 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (19,455 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (973 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (24,286 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (30,787 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (11,624 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (517 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (20,596 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (15,237 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (3,399 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.1% expected score (85 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (121 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (17,991 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (3,502 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.4% expected score (409 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (3,918 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (165 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Marshall Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate?

The French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 436K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Marshall Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Marshall Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (85K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (54.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.5%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit?

The French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 87K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-52.8%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate for white (132K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.9%) win rate for white (205K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.7%) win rate for white (95K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 54.9% (90% CI: 53.4%-56.3%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Marshall Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.