Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

French Defense: Rubinstein Variation

2.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
3...dxe4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.2%

40%55%
Floor46.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.3%.

Measured over 2.1M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.1M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.1M
Best context
51.5% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
39.0% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.8% at 0-999, 43.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (63 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (12,011 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (26,710 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (13,338 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (117 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (224 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (25,581 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (41,314 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (18,211 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (392 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (759 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (51,586 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (69,547 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (26,892 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (869 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (2,355 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (92,210 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (121,103 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (38,620 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (1,904 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (4,052 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (151,695 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (184,967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (51,265 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (2,539 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.9% expected score (2,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (204,976 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (229,460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (50,904 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (2,255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (1,159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (209,759 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (148,661 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (24,729 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (614 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (368 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (169,639 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (45,010 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.0% expected score (4,887 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.3% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (40,600 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (2,541 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.4% expected score (79 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Continuations (6)
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense
46.4%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation
45.6%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Kasparov Attack
47.3%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation
49.5%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit
52.7%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line
50.9%
Analyze French Defense: Rubinstein Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation scores 46.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.1% and 46.3% — from 2.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 2.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.1% (52K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (869K games) against 46.3% in Rapid (229K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 86K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 150K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 256K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 395K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 490K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 385K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 220K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.4%, draws 6.8% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.2%, draws 1.7% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 958K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 869K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 229K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.4%, draws 6.6% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.1% of its games and loses 51.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.