TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

French Defense: Rubinstein Variation

2.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.2%Range (90% confident): 46.1% – 46.3%Based on 2.1M games
0%46.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.1% – 46.3%
Outcome Distribution
44.1%4.1%51.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...dxe4
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation
Analyzen=2.1M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 46.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.1% and 46.3%), based on 2.1M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.0% win rate (52,239 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.1% win rate (85,722 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.6% win rate (149,653 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.3% win rate (256,192 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.5% win rate (394,518 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.1% win rate (489,986 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.1% win rate (384,922 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.7% win rate (219,971 games)
  • 2500+: 40.4% win rate (43,354 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.2% win rate (11,501 games)
  • Bullet: 44.3% win rate (958,057 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (869,313 games)
  • Rapid: 43.7% win rate (228,925 games)
  • Classical: 43.4% win rate (8,761 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (63 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (12,011 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (26,710 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (13,338 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (117 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (224 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (25,581 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (41,314 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (18,211 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (392 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (759 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (51,586 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (69,547 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (26,892 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (869 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (2,355 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (92,210 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (121,103 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (38,620 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (1,904 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (4,052 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (151,695 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (184,967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (51,265 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (2,539 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.9% expected score (2,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (204,976 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (229,460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (50,904 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (2,255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (1,159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (209,759 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (148,661 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (24,729 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (614 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (368 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (169,639 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (45,010 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.0% expected score (4,887 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.3% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (40,600 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (2,541 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.4% expected score (79 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Continuations (6)
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Blackburne Defense
46.4%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation
45.6%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Kasparov Attack
47.3%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation
49.5%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit
52.7%
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line
50.9%
Analyze French Defense: Rubinstein Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (220K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.1%) outperforms Classical (50.0%) by 3.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 86K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 150K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 256K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 395K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 490K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 385K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 220K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.8%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.4%) win rate for white (958K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white (869K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.3%) win rate for white (229K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.9%) win rate for white (8.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.