French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation
24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.0%.
Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 24K
- Best context
- 57.1% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 40.9% at 1200-1399 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.5% at 0-999, 45.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (313 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (1,221 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (789 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (373 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (943 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (753 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (503 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (940 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (690 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (43 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (608 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (1,051 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (548 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (51 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,132 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (1,160 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (438 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (35 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,120 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (1,846 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (423 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (815 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,897 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (246 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (2,444 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,487 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (148 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,796 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (548 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.9% and 49.0% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.6% (4.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (11K games) against 44.2% in Rapid (4.0K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation?
The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.8%, draws 7.1% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 42.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 188 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 49.5%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.