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Analyzer

French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.5%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 49.0%Based on 24K games
0%48.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 49.0%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%4.1%49.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Qd5
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation
Analyzen=24K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 48.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 49.0%), based on 24K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~43%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.0% win rate (2,329 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.4% win rate (2,104 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.7% win rate (2,178 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.2% win rate (2,263 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.9% win rate (2,772 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (3,408 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.1% win rate (2,963 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.8% win rate (4,079 games)
  • 2500+: 43.8% win rate (2,344 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Rapid (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.2% win rate (20 games)
  • Bullet: 49.1% win rate (9,104 games)
  • Blitz: 45.9% win rate (11,093 games)
  • Rapid: 41.9% win rate (4,035 games)
  • Classical: 42.5% win rate (188 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (313 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (1,221 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (789 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (373 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (943 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (753 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (503 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (940 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (690 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (43 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (608 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (1,051 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (548 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,132 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (1,160 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (438 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,120 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (1,846 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (423 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (815 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,897 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (246 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (2,444 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,487 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (148 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,796 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (548 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.3% win rate for white (2.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.6%) outperforms Bullet (47.3%) by 6.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.4%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.4%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 52.5%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.9%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 41.5%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.2%) win rate for white (9.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.6%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.3%-54.9%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 47.1%-59.0%) win rate for white (188 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Maric Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.