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French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.9%Range (90% confident): 44.3% – 45.5%Based on 17K games
0%44.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.3% – 45.5%
Outcome Distribution
42.5%4.8%52.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...e5
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit
Analyzen=17K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 44.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.3% and 45.5%), based on 17K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +10.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 97.1 · Trap factor: +11.4 · n=17K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.6% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (4,486 games)
  • 1000-1199: 41.7% win rate (3,470 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.0% win rate (2,660 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.0% win rate (1,941 games)
  • 1600-1799: 41.3% win rate (1,310 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.5% win rate (1,504 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.3% win rate (954 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.6% win rate (495 games)
  • 2500+: 49.8% win rate (108 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.1% win rate (427 games)
  • Bullet: 46.7% win rate (3,885 games)
  • Blitz: 42.1% win rate (7,139 games)
  • Rapid: 39.6% win rate (5,276 games)
  • Classical: 36.3% win rate (201 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (674 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (2,266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (1,524 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (635 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (1,478 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (1,316 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (512 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (966 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (129 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (416 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (685 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (651 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (60 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (157 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (384 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (425 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 33.9% expected score (318 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (54 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (394 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (729 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (319 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (344 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (527 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 24.4% expected score (55 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (421 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (105 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 55.0% win rate for white (1.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (55.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.4%) by 5.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 53.1%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 55.2% (90% CI: 52.9%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 954 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 43.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 495 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 44.3% (90% CI: 36.6%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 45.4%-53.3%) win rate for white (427 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.9%) win rate for white (3.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.6%) win rate for white (7.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.0%-56.2%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a 58.0% (90% CI: 52.3%-63.7%) win rate for white (201 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.