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French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.9%

40%55%
Floor44.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.5%.

Measured over 17K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 17K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
17K
Best context
49.9% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
40.8% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
95.2%
Draws
4.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +10.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 97.1 · Trap factor: +11.4 · 17K games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.6% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 46.7%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (674 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (2,266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (1,524 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (635 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (1,478 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (1,316 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (512 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (966 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (129 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (416 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (685 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (651 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (60 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (157 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (384 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (425 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 33.9% expected score (318 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (54 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (394 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (729 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (319 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (344 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (527 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 24.4% expected score (55 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (421 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (105 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit scores 44.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.3% and 45.5% — from 17K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
17K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit, Black wins 42.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 50.1% (495 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.8% in Blitz (7.1K games) against 42.3% in Rapid (5.3K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 42.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 41.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 41.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 954 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 495 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 49.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 108 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 1.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 427 Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 39.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 36.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 58.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.2%. It rests on 201 Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Ellis Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.5% of its games and loses 52.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.