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French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System

3.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Nf3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.7%

40%55%
Floor46.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 3.4M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.4M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
3.4M
Best context
57.4% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
Worst context
42.0% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.6% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.1% at 0-999, 59.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (42,170 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (67,404 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (13,226 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (211 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (105,564 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (216,266 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (63,010 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (463 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (885 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (170,623 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (384,535 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (145,107 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (2,895 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (2,225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (207,451 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (453,214 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (198,421 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (8,476 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (2,333 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (187,497 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (351,690 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (156,734 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (8,858 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (2,477 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (141,529 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (174,663 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (70,734 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (2,504 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (1,690 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (82,962 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (58,221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (13,950 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (279 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (820 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (44,314 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (18,347 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,908 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 62.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (6,453 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (935 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (22 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System scores 46.7% for White — we are 90% confident it is 46.7% — from 3.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System, White wins 45.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 3.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.4% (7.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (1.7M games) against 45.8% in Rapid (663K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 44.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 123K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 386K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 44.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 704K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 44.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 870K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 44.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 707K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 45.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 392K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 157K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 52.7%, draws 2.1% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 46.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 989K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 44.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 43.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 663K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 41.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 45.0% of its games and loses 51.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.